Grade one single-digit addition strategies as predictors of grade four achievement in mathematics

Early detection of and relevant information on children’s mathematical difficulties is important to initiate targeted teaching and intervention. This study investigated the extent to which strategy use in single-digit addition provides additional predictive information about 61 grade one children’s (6-year-old) mathematical achievement 3 years later that is not available from a standardised mathematics achievement test. Four predictors available in year one (arithmetic strategy use, mathematical achievement, non-verbal reasoning skills and sex) explained 54% of the variation in grade four mathematics achievement. Arithmetic strategy use was the most important single predictor of year four mathematics achievement (R2 = 30%) and explained an additional 12% variation if added to a model comprised by the three other year one predictors. This result suggests that systematically obtained measures of how young children solve single-digit arithmetic problems might provide useful information about their foundational number knowledge, which in turn may reveal how well they achieve later in school.